JPMorgan analyst predicts 50% chance of spot Ethereum ETF in May

A JPMorgan govt in truth useful on Jan. 12 that securities regulators are equally more likely to approve or disapprove a spot Ethereum ETF within the approaching months.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a Managing Director for JPMorgan, told The Block:

“In our thought, for the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in Also can simply, it would possibly maybe per chance actually well maybe presumably must classify Ethereum as a commodity (equivalent to bitcoin) as antagonistic to a security … Right here’s removed from given, and I wouldn’t build bigger than a 50% chance to the SEC classifying Ethereum as a commodity earlier than Also can simply.”

He added that the SEC is “easy signaling that it continues to appear all diverse cryptocurrencies outdoors bitcoin as securities.”

Panigirtzoglou’s comments allude to a assertion from SEC chair Gary Gensler relating to spot Bitcoin replace-traded product (ETP) approvals on Jan. 11.

There, Gensler said that the most up-to-date approvals enlighten easiest ETPs conserving Bitcoin (BTC) and identified Bitcoin as a non-security commodity. Gensler added that the approvals would possibly maybe well maybe also easy no longer signal the SEC’s views on the securities role of diverse crypto property; he furthermore asserted that the “immense majority of crypto property are investment contracts” and therefore below federal securities authorized techniques.

Other sources predict up to 70% approval odds

Despite Panigirtzoglou’s low approval estimate, some sources role bigger odds on an upcoming spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has predicted a 70% chance of such an approval by Also can simply.

One prediction market on Polymarket means that there is a 57% chance of an Ethereum ETF approval by Also can simply 31. Those odds are according to over $15,000 price of cryptocurrency bets as antagonistic to any particular individual’s personal stance.

Predictions largely point of interest on Also can simply for the reason that SEC must select on a spot Ethereum ETF application from VanEck by Also can simply 23. Other applicants including BlackRock, Constancy, VanEck, ARK Invest, and Invesco Galaxy possess furthermore filed for spot Ethereum ETFs, but with later resolution time points in time.

The SEC accredited a decision of ETFs that incorporated Ethereum futures in October 2023 but has no longer but accredited a spot Ethereum ETF.